2018 Fiance Visa K-1 statistics show abnormal trends

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Today, we’re talking about the statistics for 2018 and how it matters if you’re currently within the fiance K-1 visa process.

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.Statistic # 1 – What are the I-129F petitions approval / denial rates?

The USCIS put out information on the I-129F fiance visa form for 2018. They don’t give detailed information, but they give enough for us to figure out the following things:

In 2018, there were 47,495 new petitions filed. The I-129F percent of denials went from

● 25.8% in the first quarter

● 19.7% in the second

● 19.2% in the third

● 22% in the fourth quarter

Denials, by the way, means actual denials. Not just RFEs, delays, or other hiccups along the way. No, they mean cases were refused after months of waiting.

If you want to see an in-depth analysis of how we figure out the I-129F statistics, I suggest you read (High-i-129f-denials-in-2017)  

There’s also another interesting note (and I wrote about this a while back). I noticed a trend where people file I-129F petitions 10% more during the Spring and Summer months than the rest of the year. Can you figure out why? You can read about this interesting phenomenon here (the-best-time-to-file-the-i-129F).

So, the key takeaway from statistic # 1 is that the I-129F is a big deal. Not only because denial rates are 19-25%, but MORE importantly because, the I-129F must be frontloaded properly so it can help during the K-1 visa interview.

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Statistic # 2 – What’s the approval rate at the K-1 visa interview?

This year (2018) has got to be one of the most abnormal regarding K-1 visa approvals. Let me show you what I mean.

Normally, in the past, the average “workload” (meaning how many went to the interview) hovered around 60,000-65,000 annually. For example, in 2016 the total for K-1 or K-2 visa interviews were 66,693 applicants. A similar number for 2017 with a total of 63,151.

Take a look below at the numbers for 2018, where it shows that this number dropped more than 22% to 49,170 applicants (“total workload”) at the interview (NIVWorkload/FY2018).

Meaning 22% less people got a chance to go to the interview.

But this shouldn’t make sense.

The number of I-129F petitions stayed “normal” in comparison to previous years. So, the same amount of new people applied (I-129F) in 2018. Yet, there were 22% fewer people who went to the interview.

WHY?

Well, I’m not sure why. The only logical explanation I could think of is that it’s taking longer and longer to process K-1 visas by the US Embassies. And the fiscal year of application isn’t the same as the calendar year of interview. Meaning we can see the numbers “make up” next year.

To say it clearly, even though 60,000+ people are applying every year, the US Embassy is seeing fewer people than they did in the past. People have to wait longer for their turns. That’s just my observation.

Here are some possible reasons why:

● Embassies are overscheduled and understaffed (like what we saw in Russian US Embassies issue recently).

● It could be an internal Dep’t of State policy (under Trump’s direction) to take longer to vet out applicants

● Or are people are “dropping” out voluntarily because of the long wait?

Now, thinking in terms of denial rates: are the Embassies stricter or easier since they’re seeing fewer people?

Well, interestingly, the denial rate stayed average at about 18.5% (you can read more detailed explanations here K-1-visa-statistics-2017). So the explanation cannot be that more denials are happening.

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Statistic # 3 – Where do most applicants come from?

Now, let’s assume that the interview is passed and over with.

The US Dep’t of State (statistics) reveals which countries actually receive approved K-1 and K-2 visas.

The reigning champion is the Philippines with a total of 8,374 approvals in 2017. That’s an astounding 20.8% of the world total total. In other words, 1 out of every 5 people approved for K-1 / K-2 visas comes from the Philippines.

Next up was Vietnam with 2,296. And you can see a glimpse of the remaining large players here:

A couple of things to note:

❑ The big players are still the big players. The Philippines, Dominican Republic, the UK, china, Colombia and so on, have always been large recipients of K-1 and K-2 visas. They continue to be so.

❑ Most countries haven’t shifted positions. Meaning they are in roughly the same spots that they were (in comparison to) years before. In other words, the Philippines was always # 1 and still is.

It’s important to note: just because these countries receive large shares of visas DOES NOT mean it’s easier to get approved there. We don’t know the approval rates for individual countries; we just know the volume. Make sense?

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Statistic # 4 – How many people enter the US with a K-1 or K-2 visa?

Now, let’s assume applicants got their visa and are ready to enter the US. Entries (“admissions”) means that they were admitted into the US by Customs/Border Protection at a Port of Entry (airport, marine terminal, land border).

The US DHS hasn’t released 2018 statistics, so I’ll go by 2017. There were 40,878 entries of K-1 and K-2 visa holders into the US in 2017.

And over the years, this number hovered anywhere from 27,000 to 44,000.

Now, think back to the approval numbers for 2017 which were 40,185 in total (including both K-1 and K-2). And the table here shows that roughly 40,878 entries were made in the same year.

Why the difference? How could MORE people come than the actual number of visas issued?

Well, the number of approved visas for the year doesn’t necessarily mean that’s how many entries are made. The difference is due to when the visa is issued and when the applicant travels.

For example, if your visa was approved in July of 2018, it’s possible you traveled to the US in September 2018. In this case, your visa approval is counted in fiscal year 2018, but your entry is counted in fiscal 2019. Fiscal year is different than calendar year.

Secondly, the number of entries is close to the number of approved visas. What does this mean? Quite simply, it means that most people who are approved a visa actually come to the US. They don’t have a “change of heart” or decide they don’t want to go through with it.

Now, let me remind of something abnormal we talked about earlier. Remember the statistic on how 22% fewer people got their visas in 2018? What does this mean for the number of entries in 2018?

Well, I expect to see a huge decline in 2018 and 2019 of entries of K-1/K-2 as a result. Meaning the table will show a big drop of entries in the future.

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Statistic # 5 – Most fiance visa applicants arrive in California, Florida, New York and Texas.

Now that your fiance is flying over to the US, where does he/she actually arrive?

The supplementary tables from the DHS for 2017 show that most fiance visa applicants’ Port of Entry (POE) is…

■ California – with a total of 7,126 applicants in year 2017

■ Florida – with a total of 3,817

■ New York – with 3,655

■ Texas – with 3,103

These four states account for 43% of all K-1 and K-2 visa entries.

Note that: WHERE you land is not necessarily where you intend to live. For example, you can land in New Jersey but you intend to live in New York. So, these numbers don’t necessarily translate into where visa holders ultimately end up.

To me, these statistics make lots of sense. These four states have large, major cities with diverse and mixed ethnic groups. For example, in Los Angeles, California, there’s a huge mix group of cultures just like how it is in my city of New York.

Naturally there’d be more foreign partners coming to these regions. Wouldn’t you agree?

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Statistic # 6 – How many apply for Adjustment of Status (i.e. “Green Card”)?

Now, let’s assume you’re married and ready to file the I-485 adjustment of Status (“green card”). What’s the situation here?

Look back at the table where it showed how many entries happened in 2016. There were 44,390 entries but only 36,302 people applied for a green card. That’s nearly 82%.

So, what explains the apparent huge difference in entries versus the number of green card applications?

My observation and theory:

❒ Difference in fiscal year (this is a fact, not a guess). For example, if you entered the US in September of 2017 as a K-1 visa applicant, you may not have adjusted status until fiscal year 2018. In which case, your year of entry isn’t the same as the year of Adjustment of Status. So, there’s bound to be a natural discrepancy because of accounting.

❒ Theory # 1: Denials. We don’t know the approval/denial rates because it’s not available. So, we don’t know what percent of people are denied. So, there’s probably a small fraction who are refused a green card.

❒ Theory # 2: Cold feet. There’s probably a small fraction of people who decide not to get married. In this case, they cannot use the CF1 or IF1 to adjust status to permanent resident.

❒ Theory # 3: Delay of filing. Technically, you don’t have to adjust status after marriage. You can wait indefinitely (although not recommended) before you file for a green card. There’s probably a small fraction of K1 visa couples who wait a while before applying and get counted in future fiscal years.

So, that’s all well and good for 2016, which by all accounts was a “normal” year. However, let’s look at 2017 (US DHS).

In 2017, only 29,990 fiance and children adjusted status (got green card).

The number of entries, if you look back at the table, is 40,878 for the same year. This means only 73.4% were approved for one reason or another. Compare this 73% to previous years and you’ll see that it’s an abnormal drop in approvals. (see green card statistics)

Again, note: this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s harder to get approved, it means that less are getting approved and others are taking longer.

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What these Fiance visa statistics mean

To me it’s apparent that the effects of Trump’s regulations are just now starting to surface. We’ve already seen that for 2018 the volume of visa approvals have dropped significantly even though the volume of I-129F applications stayed the same.

Remember, this doesn’t mean that it’s tougher to get approved. It just means it’ll take much longer.

Once the US Dep’t of Homeland Security releases statistics for K-1 visa “admissions” for 2018, we’ll have a better idea on how deep the effects of Trump’s policies are going in terms of adjustment of status.

But let’s step back: I’m not even sure it’s entirely due to Trump’s regulations that we’re seeing abnormal trends.

It could just be an anomaly that the pace of processing isn’t catching up to the pace of applications coming in. Meaning Embassies may are understaffed and overscheduled.

What did you notice about these statistics? Let’s discuss below…